CITAC Annual Review of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Downstream Oil Sector 2026
In 2025, oil demand in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) increased by 6% y/y to 121mn mt (2.7mn b/d) – it surprised to the upside from expectations of ~4%. Meanwhile, total SSA refinery output recovered in 2025. The net result of the strong demand growth and significant refinery output increase was a reduction in total oil product import requirements by 7% y/y. Looking ahead, although 2026 demand growth is bound to be impacted by geopolitical events in the Middle East, CITAC still expects to see strong growth in the medium to long-term driven by solid fundamentals. By 2045, SSA oil product demand is forecast to reach 186mn mt, over 50% higher than at present.
2025 oil products demand in East and Southern Africa (ESA) increased by 7% y/y, compared to a 5% y/y growth in West and Central Africa (WCA). While some ESA countries’ oil products demand grew rapidly in 2025, with Zimbabwean demand rising by 25% y/y, Sudan’s demand contracted by 23% y/y in 2025 to 1.8mn mt and was 69% lower than 2022 levels, as a result of the ongoing civil war. Meanwhile, in WCA, 2025 was a year of mixed fortunes for the region with some markets experiencing strong growth and others struggling with security-related challenges. The strongest performers were once again mining-dominated markets such as DRC and Guinea, while major contractions were posted in markets that experienced political turmoil, e.g. Mali.
On the refining side, WCA average crude throughput was up sharply for the second year running to 710 kb/d in 2025, up from 517 kb/d in 2024. The Dangote refinery in Nigeria has dominated the discourse as 2025 marked a major ramp up of run rates at the refinery and a significant improvement in yields of clean products as secondary units stabilised. In contrast, in ESA, the ongoing civil war in Sudan and the final closure in 2023 of the Indeni refinery in Zambia meant that only two crude oil and one coal-to-liquids refinery in South African remain operational.
CITAC’s Annual Review of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Downstream Oil Sector 2026 addresses the key trends in the industry: Rapid LPG demand growth, shifting fuel oil supply & demand dynamics, clean product trading flows, the impact of new refining projects, regulation changes as well as detailed expert analysis of future trends.
CITAC Annual Review of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Downstream Oil Sector can be purchased individually. The report is also available at a discounted rate as part of a subscription to our report and retainer services.