The Effects of a Global Pandemic and Low Oil Prices on African Oil Demand

As the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and record-low crude oil prices ripple through Sub-Saharan African societies and economies, CITAC expects to see clean products demand contract by 3.1mn mt in April compared to March, and by 3.5mn mt, or nearly 40%, y/y. Q2 2020 demand is expected to contract by 9.5mn mt, or 36%, compared to Q2 2019. The net effect of a fast-contracting demand and gradual refinery runs reduction will be a significant fall in net import requirements across the different regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, SSA net import requirements are expected to fall by 8.3mn mt in Q2 2020 compared to the previous quarter, to 10.6mn mt.

CITAC has published an interim update of the CITAC short-term forecast for Sub-Saharan African oil products demand, refinery output and net import balances, available to all its subscribers. In these turbulent times, CITAC is monitoring developments closely and reflecting them in its forecasts as they happen. CITAC short-term forecasts will be reviewed again in the next edition of the CITAC Sub-Saharan Oil Market Report.