{"id":530,"date":"2018-01-21T12:34:07","date_gmt":"2018-01-21T12:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/beta.citac.com\/2018\/02\/21\/downstream-insight-january-2018-2018-may-wild-2014\/"},"modified":"2018-04-11T15:45:14","modified_gmt":"2018-04-11T14:45:14","slug":"zoom-sur-laval-petrolier-janvier-2018-pourquoi-2018-pourrait-etre-aussi-dejantee-que-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/citac.com\/fr\/zoom-sur-laval-petrolier-janvier-2018-pourquoi-2018-pourrait-etre-aussi-dejantee-que-2014\/","title":{"rendered":"Pourquoi 2018 pourrait \u00eatre aussi d\u00e9jant\u00e9e que 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">La d\u00e9couverte d&rsquo;une fuite, dans le pipeline Forties en Mer du Nord en d\u00e9cembre 2017, a jet\u00e9 un nouveau pav\u00e9 dans la mare pour ce qui est des march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers mondiaux \u00e0 plus d&rsquo;un titre.<\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">La perte impr\u00e9vue de pr\u00e8s d&rsquo;un demi-million de barils de brut est embl\u00e9matique d&rsquo;une situation o\u00f9 les analystes et les pr\u00e9visionnistes se creusent les m\u00e9ninges lorsqu&rsquo;il s&rsquo;agit de pr\u00e9dire o\u00f9 vont aller les prix. Jusqu&rsquo;au milieu de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2017, beaucoup de r\u00e9putations avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9tablies sur la \u00absagesse conventionnelle\u00bb que les fondamentaux du march\u00e9 affichaient in\u00e9luctablement une tendance baissi\u00e8re, et que les tentatives de l&rsquo;OPEP de soutenir les prix en r\u00e9duisant la production \u00e9taient vou\u00e9es \u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9chec. Les coupes de l&rsquo;OPEP seraient simplement remplac\u00e9es par une nouvelle production de schiste aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/span><\/p>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-514 alignnone\" src=\"http:\/\/www.citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/bfo-crude-futures-jan2018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"390\" height=\"317\" srcset=\"https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/bfo-crude-futures-jan2018.png 390w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/bfo-crude-futures-jan2018-300x244.png 300w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/bfo-crude-futures-jan2018-320x260.png 320w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/bfo-crude-futures-jan2018-260x211.png 260w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 390px) 100vw, 390px\" \/>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Par la suite, il y a eu le passage, en juillet, de la structure du march\u00e9 du Brent du report au\u00a0 d\u00e9port (lorsque le cours du mois le plus rapproch\u00e9 est en moyenne sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ceux des mois plus \u00e9loign\u00e9s sur la courbe \u00e0 terme). Et soudain, tout a \u00e9t\u00e9 chamboul\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Depuis, tout un ensemble de facteurs a concouru \u00e0 maintenir les prix du brut sur une courbe ascendante \u00a0et la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence BFOE flirte maintenant avec les 70 $\/b ou plus, et ce, \u00e0 plusieurs reprises.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Dans cet article, nous mettons en exergue ces facteurs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale, s&rsquo;ils augurent que les prix pourraient encore prendre l\u2019ascenseur, ou si la th\u00e9orie du resserrement de l&rsquo;offre et de la croissance de la demande (\u00e0 en croire les adeptes de la tendance baissi\u00e8re) est sur le point de partir en fum\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><em><span class=\"s1\">Par Neil Fleming, janvier 2018<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<a href=\"\/fr\/purchase-report\/?item=Pourquoi+2018+pourrait+\u00eatre+aussi+d\u00e9jant\u00e9e+que+2014\" class=\"button yellow\">Achetez ce document<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La d\u00e9couverte d&rsquo;une fuite, dans le pipeline Forties en Mer du Nord en d\u00e9cembre 2017, a jet\u00e9 un nouveau pav\u00e9 dans la mare pour ce qui est des march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers mondiaux \u00e0 plus d&rsquo;un titre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-downstream-insights-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.1 - 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