{"id":2165,"date":"2018-10-25T14:46:20","date_gmt":"2018-10-25T13:46:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.citac.com\/?p=2165"},"modified":"2018-10-25T14:52:24","modified_gmt":"2018-10-25T13:52:24","slug":"marpol-2020-et-lafrique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/citac.com\/fr\/marpol-2020-et-lafrique\/","title":{"rendered":"MARPOL 2020 et L\u2019 Afrique"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>CITAC \u00e9tudie l\u2019impact sur les raffineries, les transports maritimes et la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement de l\u2019introduction mondiale de carburants de soutages \u00e0 faible teneur en soufre pour l\u2019exp\u00e9dition.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>CITAC Africa vient de publier un article intitul\u00e9 Zoom sur les r\u00e8gles MARPOL de l\u2019OMI qui devront \u00eatre en place au 1er janvier 2020 et qui met l\u2019accent sur les flux de fuel oil africain et la qualit\u00e9 typique des produits.<\/p>\n<p>Un extrait du document Zoom suit et vous pouvez nous contacter pour plus d&rsquo;informations.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-2163\" src=\"https:\/\/www.citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Insight-OCT-18-300x161.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"161\" srcset=\"https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Insight-OCT-18-300x161.jpg 300w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Insight-OCT-18-320x171.jpg 320w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Insight-OCT-18-260x139.jpg 260w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Insight-OCT-18-455x243.jpg 455w, https:\/\/citac.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Insight-OCT-18.jpg 456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><br \/>\nL\u2019article fait effet de la variable cl\u00e9 dans ce cas est ind\u00e9niablement le niveau de non-conformit\u00e9 d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9 ou accidentel que nous chiffrons \u00e0 15% en 2020, tandis que d\u2019autres avancent des seuils avoisinant les 35%. L\u2019OMI s\u2019att\u00e8le actuellement \u00e0 faire respecter les r\u00e8gles; nous devrons patienter pour constater comment tout cela fonctionnera dans la pratique.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Impact sur les raffineurs<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sur les raffineurs, l\u2019article dit:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Il n\u2019existe aucune logique \u00e9conomique \u00e0 investir lourdement dans la d\u00e9sulfuration du fuel oil (bien que les raffineurs japonais et cor\u00e9ens envisagent cette option), car cela consisterait \u00e0 investir dans la conversion d\u2019un produit dont la valeur est inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle du brut, pour en produire un autre qui devrait \u00e9galement devenir assez rapidement, \u00e9galement inf\u00e9rieur au prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res;<\/li>\n<li>Il est beaucoup plus \u00e9conomique de consacrer ce capital \u00e0 la valorisation du fuel oil pour le transformer en distillats, qui eux continueront \u00e0 rapporter une prime \u00e9lev\u00e9e au raffineur par rapport au brut.<\/li>\n<li>La disponibilit\u00e9 de fuel oil \u00e0 base de soufre \u00e0 0,50% sera probablement limit\u00e9e aux volumes actuels, avec des am\u00e9liorations marginales dues \u00e0 des bruts moins sulfureux, cela en supposant que la marge suppl\u00e9mentaire n\u2019est pas entam\u00e9e par la modification des primes sur les cours du brut (le cours du brut ira de pair avec l\u2019augmentation des rendements des produits)<\/li>\n<li>Certaines raffineries zombies pourraient \u00eatre raviv\u00e9es dans le but de tirer parti des opportunit\u00e9s du march\u00e9: par exemple: Wilhelmshaven en Allemagne en optimisant son rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 en GOSV, que ce soit sur le march\u00e9 du soutage \u00e0 basse teneur en soufre ou au sein de l\u2019alimentation des charges de craquage traditionnels, et Hovensa \u00e0 St. Croix, dans les Cara\u00efbes, qui chercherait \u00e0 optimiser les bruts am\u00e9ricains, v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9liens et sud-am\u00e9ricains afin de r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la demande r\u00e9gionale en soutes \u00e0 faible teneur en soufre .<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Le r\u00e9sultat probable de cette logique et des actions qui en r\u00e9sulteraient est que la production de fuel oil domestique diminuera apr\u00e8s 2020, \u00e0 moins d\u2019une augmentation substantielle des d\u00e9bits de bruts dans les raffineries, ce qui n\u00e9cessiterait une am\u00e9lioration importante des marges de raffinage afin d\u2019encourager de telles mesures. Le fuel oil ainsi d\u00e9plac\u00e9, serait converti en distillats.<\/p>\n<p><strong>De la th\u00e9orie \u00e0 la pratique en Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Il est clair que les raffineries sud-africaine et \u00e9gyptienne ne b\u00e9n\u00e9ficieront pas de MARPOL 2020 mais qu\u2019elles devront rechercher des march\u00e9s d\u2019exportation de moindre valeur et \u00e0 haute teneur en soufre. CITAC s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que les raffineurs sud-africains passent \u00e0 une charge d\u2019alimentation compos\u00e9e de bruts non sulfureux et produisent une quantit\u00e9 limit\u00e9e de combustibles de soutage conformes. Leur priorit\u00e9 d\u2019investissement sera ax\u00e9e, dans un premier temps, sur la production de carburants routiers<br \/>\nplus propres, tout en croisant les doigts pour que la r\u00e9surgence des \u00e9purateurs puisse aider le march\u00e9 du fuel \u00e0 teneur \u00e9lev\u00e9e en soufre \u00e0 r\u00e9cup\u00e9rer plus rapidement que pr\u00e9vu.<\/p>\n<p>Pour ce qui est de l\u2019Egypte, l\u2019EGPC esp\u00e8re que les nouvelles unit\u00e9s de l\u2019ERC (remises \u00e0 niveau) au Caire d\u00e9marreront bient\u00f4t pour enlever du march\u00e9 une partie du fuel oil \u00e0 haute teneur en soufre. \u00c0 Suez, CITAC s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que l\u2019EGPC r\u00e9duise le d\u00e9bit de brut sur le court terme afin d\u2019\u00e9quilibrer les exportations de fuel oil, y compris les soutes \u00e0 haute teneur en soufre, en fonction des marges de raffinage. Pendant cette p\u00e9riode, alors que de nouveaux projets de raffinerie sont en passe d\u2019\u00eatre \u00e9valu\u00e9s, l\u2019\u00c9gypte continuera \u00e0 importer des carburants de transport de haute qualit\u00e9 en provenance des raffineries exportatrices d\u2019Arabie saoudite situ\u00e9es de l\u2019autre c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la mer Rouge.<\/p>\n<p><em>Par David Bleasdale, Directeur Ex\u00e9cutif CITAC &#8211; Octobre 2018<\/em><\/p>\n<a href=\"\/fr\/purchase-report\/?item=MARPOL 2020 et L\u2019Afrique\" class=\"button yellow\">Achetez ce document<\/a>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CITAC \u00e9tudie l\u2019impact sur les raffineries, les transports maritimes et la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement de l\u2019introduction mondiale de carburants de soutages \u00e0 faible teneur en soufre pour l\u2019exp\u00e9dition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-downstream-insights-fr"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.1 - 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